Economic Outlook & Real Estate

Excerpts from The Kiplinger Report:


Will housing's slump cause a recession?
* No. But it will slow growth a lot through next year, until the balance of supply and demand for residential property returns. Next year...2.5% economic growth TOPS, and it may well be closer to 2%.

Housing is delivering a triple economic whammy:
* A sharp, sudden drop in housing construction, financial strains on many homeowners' incomes and a major chill in consumer confidence.
* Energy prices remain the linchpin on whether the economy sinks or swims in 2007.
A big increase in costs of oil and other fuels would be too much for U.S. consumers to bear on top of the hit they're taking from housing.
* Most likely, oil prices have peaked and will start a slow easing after Labor Day. But supply disruption risks are rising as conflicts in the Middle East gain intensity.
* Average home prices will stay flat through about the middle of next year. By then, builders will have curtailed supply enough to allow the current overhang of about 300,000 houses nationwide to start to be absorbed by the market.
* Still, sellers will face a dismal spring, usually the best sales season.
* We see starts sliding to 1.7 million next year from 1.85 million this year. Population trends argue for an average of 1.8 million homes to be added annually, but builders surpassed that level in 2004 and 2005.
* Much of that surplus went to speculators, but the demand has vanished.
* Housing will play a big part in slowing job growth. Next year, net employment growth will slacken to an average of 117,000 a month.
* Home building and related fields...mortgage finance, furnishings, design, landscaping, etc...have made up 25% of overall job growth since 2002.

The housing cooldown will have a broader reach than expected just a few months ago. Back then, it seemed that the bulk of the downturn would be restricted to former boom areas, located mainly on the coasts. But sluggishness in some industries, especially autos, is taking its toll on some inland areas, notably Ind., Mich., Ohio and parts of Pa. and N.Y.

That doesn't spell a shift from a market correction to a crash. The market is adjusting, albeit very quickly, from an extended period of unusually robust activity made frothy by investment-led purchases. By late 2007, homeownership will resume its historical role as a relatively secure store of value that also provides shelter.

Strong global demand is putting a firm floor under oil prices, keeping them between $70 and $75 a barrel through Nov. at least.
* Of course, any new threat to supplies will produce sharp price spikes.
* Gasoline prices WILL start coming down after Labor Day, as usual.
* But motorists may hardly notice. In past years, pump prices fell about 15% between the end of summer and early Jan. This year, the drop will be about half that, to $2.75 a gallon, on average, from $2.95 now.
* Diesel fuel...down only about a dime, from $3.11 a gallon.
* Heating oil...up about 30¢ a gallon, on average, this winter from $2.80 this summer. That's about 25¢ a gallon higher than a year ago.
* Natural gas will be much costlier by year end as well, increasing to $10 to $12 per million British thermal units, from $7 now, as demand for electricity to heat homes puts pressure on scant supplies.

Although many large U.S. companies are flush with cash... Not all are prosperous. Public company bankruptcies are rising this year for the first time since 2001 and will keep climbing for years. Among the reasons: Higher interest rates, a cooling housing market and high energy costs will bedevil firms struggling to pay off debt.

HOW A NEW CAR PAYMENT REDUCES YOUR PURCHASE PRICE!

BUY THE HOUSE FIRST!

When determining your ability to qualify for a mortgage, lenders look at what is called your "debt-to-income" ratio. A debt-to-income ratio is the percentage of your gross monthly income that you spend on debt. This will include your monthly housing costs, including principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and HOA fees if applicable It will also include your monthly consumer debt, including credit cards, student loans, installment debt, and ..... car payments.

For example, suppose you earn $5,000/month and you have a car payment of $400. At current interest rates you would qualify for approximately $55,000 LESS than if you did not have the car payment. Even if you feel you can afford the car payment, mortgage companies approve your mortgage based on THEIR guidelines, not YOURS!

However, if you have not already bought a car, remember one thing. Whenever the thought of buying a car enteres you mind, think ahead.....Think about buying a home first. Buying a home is a much more important purchase when considering your future financial well being.

Do Not Buy The Car First -- Buy The House First!

Buying A Home Is A Good Investment!

As a general rule, homes appreciate about four or five percent in a year. Some years will be more, some less. The figure will vary from neighbohood to neighborhood and from region to region. Boulder County has generally seen much higher appreciation rates over the years.

Five perdent may not seem like much. Stocks can sometimes appreciate much more and treasury bills or bonds are a pretty safe return on investment.

Let's take a look at a property investment....

• If you bought a home for $200,000 with a 20% downpayment, your initial investment would be $40,000. At an appreciation rate of 5%, your home would increase in value by $10,000 during the 1st year. Not bad on a $40,000 investment!
• You are also making mortgage payments and paying property taxes. However, since the interest you pay on your mortgage and your property taxes are both tax deductible, the governments is essentially sudsidizing your home purchase.

Your rate of return on your home purchase investment is higher than most any other investment you could make!

Pikes Pike Bicentennial Celebration

July 14 - August 15

Original Pike documents from the National Archives will be on display at the Colorado Springs Pioneers Museum. This will be the first time these documents have been seen in this region since Zebulon Pike was here 200 years ago!

Pikes Peak was first seen by Zebulon Pike on November 15, 1806.

Many activities to celebrate are going on throughout the year.

Visit www.zebulonpike.org for more details.

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?

The first pre-season Broncos football game is just 8 days away!

Are you ready?

The game is at Detroit but will be televised on CBS.

Remember the time difference!

Don't miss a minute!

7:30 p.m. EDT from Ford Field

IMPACT ON EDUCATION

Crayons to Calculators Helps Boulder Valley Students

Start School Ready to Learn

Do you know that over 4000 students in the Boulder Valley School District (BVSD) who are from low-income homes routinely begin school without adequate supplies? Not only are these students unprepared, they never experience the excitement of starting school armed with new supplies.

To ensure that these students start school prepared, Impact on Education, along with five other non-profits, is involved with Crayons to Calculators, a community-wide school supply drive for students in need. The drive is a partnership among Extras for Education, Family Learning Center, Foothills United Way, “I Have a Dream”® Foundation of Boulder County, Impact on Education and Sister Carmen Community Center. It is sponsored by the Boulder Rotary Club Foundation and Corporate Express and supported by about 15 local financial institutions, corporations and organizations.

Crayons to Calculators aims to ensure that all BVSD students start school ready to learn. But the drive needs your help. Individuals can support the drive by filling a backpack for a student in need, donating cash online or donating loose supplies at one of about 30 supply drop-off locations. To learn more, log on to www.CrayonsToCalculators.org or call (303) 245-5880.
You also may send a check to Crayons to Calculators, care of Impact on Education, 75 Manhattan Drive, Suite 205, Boulder, CO 80303. Together, we can ensure that all BVSD students start school prepared.

Insert taken from Boulder Valley School District Newsletter

The Honeymoon Is Over

The media has recently been reporting that the real estate market is slowing. Boulder County sales statistics substantiate these reprots with year to year sales comparison ot be off 5% and inventory of homes up by 16% in the singel family residence category. Condos & townhomes sales are virtually even but the inventory is up by 13%.

The market is increasingly strong for long-term investments, whether it's for your primary residence or a part of your financial portfolio.

Investors who purchase fix & flip properties must approach the market with caution. In the past, properties purchased at discounted prices and fixed could be resold for a tidy profit due to appreciation. In the current market, fix & flip properties need to be purchased at bargain basement prices and will most likely sell closer to current competitive pricing and linger on the market longer.

In terest rates continue to rise and the economic outlook for 2007 predicts that market conditions will be more balanced.

Let Me Help You Invest Wisely

As Your Buyer's Agent!

Lawn Tonic

There has been a lawn tonic recipe circulating for some time that reportedly keeps your lawn green while using less water in our drought conditions. This "home brew" uses beer, mouthwash and a few other unorthodox ingredients. There are many variations of this mixture, this one seems to work well in Colorado......

Lawn Tonic Recipe

1 can beer - do not use "light" beer

1 can soda - do not use "diet" soda

1/2 cup liquid soap - do not use antimicrobial soap

1/2 cup liquid ammonia

1/2 mouthwash

Put the ingredients in a 10 gallon hose sprayer and water your lawn with the mixture.

Results - green lawn using less water!

IDENTITY THEFT

Identity theft is a serious crime. It occurs when your personal information is stolen and used without your knowledge to commit fraud or other crimes. Identity theft can cost you time and money. It can destroy your credit and ruin your good name.

The NAR (National Association of Realtors) has teamed up with the FTC (Federal Trade Commission) to provide consumer information to help our real estate clients with the issues of identity theft. The program is called

"DETER - DETECT - DEFEND"

Follow the link and learn more about the program and how you can avoid theft!

BOLDER BOULDER

Bolder Boulder - Memorial Weekend Race

The Chamberlin's (all four family members; AJ, John, Alex, and Landrum) walked the Bolder Boulder in 1:28. As AJ reminds everyone, "with a little help from the shuttle" we finished the race walking with the kids! What a great event for the family!

What Makes One Home More Valuable Than Another?

Buying or selling a home can seem like an overwhelming task. But the right REALTOR can make the process easier - and more profitable. For many home buyers, understanding what makes one home more valuable than another seems a bit arbitrary. But the reality is that various features can add thousands of dollars to the value of a home. Some of these include:

• Square Footage: How big is the house?
• Design: Is it a colonial or a ranch?
• Floor Plan: How well do the rooms "flow"?
• Quality Of The Neighborhood: Is it a highly desirable locale?
• Quality Of The Public School System: Whether or not you have children who will attend the schools is irrelevant.
• Proximity to public transportation, religious centers, shopping, and schools
• Quality Of Construction: Was it built by a reputable builder?
• Lot size, view, and quality of landscaping
• How Busy Is the Street: Houses located on "double-yellow line" streets are less valuable than those on streets less traveled.

Working with the right REALTOR can help you understand why these factors are important and how best to gauge your home's true valve, perform a comparative market analysis (CMA) - an informal analysis of comparable homes in your neighborhood, and recommend a certified appraiser, who can calculate the value of your home at any given time.

Call for a no strings attached, no-hazzel CMA! Log on to www.chamberlinteam.com or http://ajchamberlin.com for more information on buying or selling your home.

Money-Saving Tips

Money-Saving Tips For Your Home

With the cost of energy at an all-time high, we can all save money on our engergy bills with relatively simple solutions! According to the Alliance to Save Energy, Department of Energy and Environmental Protection Agency, American consumers and businesses spend approximately $21 BILLION annually, on lighting alone, and could cut their costs in half with energy-efficient light bulbs and fixtures while improving the environment. Installing efficient lighting in our homes and businesses would reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 140 million tons each year! Isn't that amazing?

We found a website (sponsored by the EPA and the DOS) that shows how to save money on energy bills by incorporating their energy efficiency suggestions. It's http://hes.lbl.gov/. Let us know if you have tried any of their suggestions and how much money you saved.....

Trends

Trends in Bathroom and Kitchen Designs

In a quarterly Home Design Trend Survey, the American Institute of Architects (AIA) determined the latest trends in kitchen and bath features and products. Here are their findings:

Bathrooms

• Larger bathrooms and more of them
• Upscale showers, including multihead showers, steam showers, separate his-and-her showers and walk-in showers with no doors for better accessibility
• Double sinks or multiple vanities
• Heated floors, heated towel racks, towel-warming drawers and fireplaces
• Decreasing in popularity: heat lamps and whirlpool baths

Kitchens

• Larger kitchens and more of them throughout the home, including a separate food storage facility, food preparation area or outdoor kitchen
• More pantry space
• Upper-end appliances
• Integrated living areas near the kitchen such as a family room
• Natural stone countertops and natural wood cabinets
• Drinking water filtration systems

How does your kitchen or bath stand-up to these latest trends?

Be sure to choose your remodeling projects wisely - not all remodels will provide the return on investment when selling your home!

Internet Use Rises

Home-Buyer Reliance On Internet Rises

According to the National Association of REALTORS in a recent survey, nine out of ten buyers still use a real estate agent. The internet, however, plays a growing role in the home-search process:

% Buyers who use the net % Buyers who found their

to search for a home: home on the net:

2005 77 24

2004 74 15

1995 2 2

Visit our website to search for all properties in Boulder County! www.chamberlinteam.com

Boulder Valley School District

Congratulations Boulder Valley School District!

Did you know that in a recently released report that 2 Boulder High Schools ranked in the TOP 1,000 high schools in the nation?

# 233 Fairview High School
# 236 Boulder High School

Just one more magnificent reason to live in Boulder!

Outdoor Wood & Spring Cleaning

Each year around this time, it is a good idea to consider the care of outdoor wood around your home, whether it is decking, fencing, or siding. Here are some suggestions for the care and maintenance of outdoor wood.....

First, a word of caution: The wood you buy at any lumber store will not retain the color and texture you see right after it's installed. Water and sunlight, specifically UV or ultraviolet light, over time will change both the color and texture of wood. Water repellent preservatives and sealers can help maintain a consistent color, but they will not give the same color or tone you see in the lumber rack.

For longevity of your outdoor wood, apply a preservative to the wood. A clear preservative will most often darken and enrich the natural color. Choose a product with UV protection. Some preservatives also have color added with will stain the wood.

Decks require either annual or semi-annual maintenance, depending on exposure to weather and use. A maintenance program consists of cleaning the deck, removing any mildew that might have accumulated and applying a new coat of preservative.

The best way to clean a deck is with a pressure washer, although for smaller decks a stiff bristle brush and a lot of elbow grease will also work! In shaded, moist areas, mildew buildup can be a problem. To solve this, wash with a weak bleach solution - 1/4 cup of bleach to a gallon of water - to kill the fungus before pressure washing.

Once cleaning is completed, allow the deck to dry for a day or so. Then apply two coats of UV protective water repellent sealer or stain.

If this sounds like a lot of work - it is! The reward, of course, is a summer outdoors in pleasant surroundings and prolonging the life of your investment. It's well worth the effort!

Why Use A Realtor?

Some homeowners decide to sell their home by themselves to save the commission charged by a real estate agent. The commission rate may vary but it is usually around 6% of the selling price. Selling your home by yourself means you will be responsible for placing ads, answering phone call inquiries, and showing your home to strangers.

FACT: Home buyers who know you are trying to save money on the real estate commission will offer less for your home, wiping out the amount you saved on real estate fees. FSBO home sale transactions generally can sell for up to 20% less than if a Realtor was used to sell the same property!
FACT: In the last 10 years, there has been a decreasing trend in homeowner's successfully selling their homes - the process has become more complicated, time-consuming, and costly.


What A Realtor Can Do For You:

• Help you establish a fair market price for your home
• Create a marketing program to effectively promote your home through MLS listings, websites, direct mailings, real estate magazines and advertisements, e-mail postings to area Realtors, conduct open houses.....
• Schedule showings to prospective buyers
• Pre-screen buyers so only qualified buyers are shown through your home
• Help negotiate the sale of your home with the buyer
• Make recommendations for "staging" your home, making it more attractive to potential buyers
• Provide all of the necessary forms and documents for the sale of your home
• BE YOUR ADVOCATE throughout the sales and marketing transaction!

Home Appraisals

Home Appraisals and the Home Buyer

A home appraisal determines what a house is worth. This number is especially important when you're looking to purchase a particular house. Your lender will make a decision regarding the amount of your loan based on the appraisal value of the property. The appraiser not only takes into account the house in question, but similar homes sold in the area, as well as several other factors. The appraised value of a house can also help you with assessing taxes and estate planning when buying a home.

Due to the varying factors that go into an appraisal, there are cases when the appraised value of a house will differ, sometimes greatly with the asking price. When this occurs you may be suddenly held responsible for a greater down payment than origianally calculated. To protect yourself from this occurence, you should insist that the real estate contract includes a financing contingency. The contingency may include the opportunity to cancel the contract and get your earnest money refunded or state that the seller will reduce the price of the house to the appraised amount.

Working with a knowledge Real Estate Broker can make a huge difference when buying or selling your home and can help to protect your interests by using contingencies like this!

Call AJ or John Chamberlin, they can help you through the many details of buying or selling a home!

AJ: 303.588.8999 - or email - aj@chamberlinteam.com

John: 303.579.4455 - or email - john@chamberlinteam.com

Spring Maintenance Tips

Keeping your home in good working order means it will last longer, be more enjoyable - and worth more when you want to sell it!

Here are twelve suggested maintenance items which most homeowners should check annually:
1. Inspect your roof for leaks or other damage.
2. Repaint as needed.
3. Repair damaged grout and ceramic tile in bathrooms and kitchen areas.
4. Insure that all plumbing fixtures are working efficiently.
5. Caulk or weatherstrip around leaky windows and doors.
6. Keep your driveway in good condition.
7. Clean or replace furnance filters every 3 months.
8. Check batteries in smoke detectors.
9. Repair damaged decks or porches.
10. Prune trees and shrubs.
11. Look for damage from termites or other pests.
12. Maintain proper drainage away from your home's foundation.

Establishing a home maintenance schedule can keep you on top of these jobs. For instance, one month you can make sure your deck is sturdy, and the next month you'll look for roof leaks. However, be careful, when doing jobs you aren't used to - make sure to seek professional help, or even just another pair of hands, when needed.

Congressman Mark Udall Meet & Greet

Area REALTORS are invited to "Meet and Greet"

Congressman Mark Udall

April 17, 2006 from 11 a.m. to 12:30 p.m.

Back Country Brewery

Frisco, Colorado

It is beneficial for REALTORS to stay involved with their Congressional leaders. It is an opportunity to let them know what our concerns are and to develop a relationship with them. We have already captured the attention of Congressman Mark Udall, and he will be at the Back County Brewery to listen to your concerns and speak about issues in the real estate community. There is much to be concerned about these days. For example:

• The President's Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform recommends that the mortgage interest deduction maximum debt eligible for a tax credit would be limited to 125% of the median sales price for homes in their county. It would only be available on principal residences. The deduction would be eliminated for equity line mortgages! Any implementation of this reform may have a drastic negative affect on your income!
• NAR opposes legal rulings by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to expand the ability of national banks to engage in real estate development and ownership and in merchant banking.
• 25% of REALTORS have no health insurance. Thus, NAR is pushing for association health plans.
• NAR supports increasing the current loan limits in high cost market areas to make available homeownership opportunities for first-time homeowners and minority homebuyers.

If real estate is your career then politics is your business!

The cost is free for the first 50 people to reserve, and includes a soup, salad & potato bar, with marinated chicken garnished with mango salsa. Let's show our Congressman we care and that we are a constituency that must be listenend to. Space is limited, so please RSVP as soon as possible.

To register, Call Sally Stoffel at (303) 415-3590, fax to (303) 449-8554, or email sally@chamberlinteam.com. Include: Name, Brokerage, Address, Phone # and email address.

This event is not a fundraiser, and contributions for Udall's re-election are not required for attendance. However, the Congressman will happily accept any voluntary contributions.

Organized by Colorado Association of Realtors; Federal Political Coordinator Members