Economic Outlook & Real Estate

Excerpts from The Kiplinger Report:


Will housing's slump cause a recession?
* No. But it will slow growth a lot through next year, until the balance of supply and demand for residential property returns. Next year...2.5% economic growth TOPS, and it may well be closer to 2%.

Housing is delivering a triple economic whammy:
* A sharp, sudden drop in housing construction, financial strains on many homeowners' incomes and a major chill in consumer confidence.
* Energy prices remain the linchpin on whether the economy sinks or swims in 2007.
A big increase in costs of oil and other fuels would be too much for U.S. consumers to bear on top of the hit they're taking from housing.
* Most likely, oil prices have peaked and will start a slow easing after Labor Day. But supply disruption risks are rising as conflicts in the Middle East gain intensity.
* Average home prices will stay flat through about the middle of next year. By then, builders will have curtailed supply enough to allow the current overhang of about 300,000 houses nationwide to start to be absorbed by the market.
* Still, sellers will face a dismal spring, usually the best sales season.
* We see starts sliding to 1.7 million next year from 1.85 million this year. Population trends argue for an average of 1.8 million homes to be added annually, but builders surpassed that level in 2004 and 2005.
* Much of that surplus went to speculators, but the demand has vanished.
* Housing will play a big part in slowing job growth. Next year, net employment growth will slacken to an average of 117,000 a month.
* Home building and related fields...mortgage finance, furnishings, design, landscaping, etc...have made up 25% of overall job growth since 2002.

The housing cooldown will have a broader reach than expected just a few months ago. Back then, it seemed that the bulk of the downturn would be restricted to former boom areas, located mainly on the coasts. But sluggishness in some industries, especially autos, is taking its toll on some inland areas, notably Ind., Mich., Ohio and parts of Pa. and N.Y.

That doesn't spell a shift from a market correction to a crash. The market is adjusting, albeit very quickly, from an extended period of unusually robust activity made frothy by investment-led purchases. By late 2007, homeownership will resume its historical role as a relatively secure store of value that also provides shelter.

Strong global demand is putting a firm floor under oil prices, keeping them between $70 and $75 a barrel through Nov. at least.
* Of course, any new threat to supplies will produce sharp price spikes.
* Gasoline prices WILL start coming down after Labor Day, as usual.
* But motorists may hardly notice. In past years, pump prices fell about 15% between the end of summer and early Jan. This year, the drop will be about half that, to $2.75 a gallon, on average, from $2.95 now.
* Diesel fuel...down only about a dime, from $3.11 a gallon.
* Heating oil...up about 30¢ a gallon, on average, this winter from $2.80 this summer. That's about 25¢ a gallon higher than a year ago.
* Natural gas will be much costlier by year end as well, increasing to $10 to $12 per million British thermal units, from $7 now, as demand for electricity to heat homes puts pressure on scant supplies.

Although many large U.S. companies are flush with cash... Not all are prosperous. Public company bankruptcies are rising this year for the first time since 2001 and will keep climbing for years. Among the reasons: Higher interest rates, a cooling housing market and high energy costs will bedevil firms struggling to pay off debt.