THE LATEST FROM DC:
1) FHA LEGISLATION TAKES A MAJOR STEP FORWARD
On late Friday afternoon, Senate Banking Committee members struck a deal on FHA modernization legislation. This is the key step on the road to enactment of the legislation in the next 30 days assuming the deal holds. The Committee is scheduled to mark-up the bill on Wednesday, September 19th. The FHA bill can now move expeditiously through the Senate because of the bi-partisan support. The key provisions are: (We will provide an in-depth analysis of the provisions after the mark-up)
a. Higher mortgage limits
The Senate bill will increase the FHA limits as follows:
FHA floor increases from 48% to 65% of the GSE limit (i.e. from $200,160 to $271,050)
The new floor will likely be effective upon signature by the President.
FHA ceiling will increase to $417,000
This provision will likely not be effective immediately. FHA will need to analyze local markets to determine whether an increase is justified. We do believe that FHA will move to increase limits ASAP.
b. Lower and more flexible down payment
The compromise will require 1.5% borrower cash investment. There will be a cap of 100% loan-to value ratio. However, the upfront MIP will apparently be required to be included in the 100% LTV effectively capping the loan amount at 98.5% assuming an upfront MIP of 1.5%. At first glance, our thoughts on this provision are:
1. The reduced cash investment (1.5% instead of the current 3%) provides flexibility in helping the borrower to qualify. For example, it would permit the seller to pay closing costs or the homebuyer to pay closing costs through premium pricing. Gifts from acceptable sources will certainly continue to be allowed.
2. If FHA does implement risk-based pricing administratively as they have indicated, the inclusion of the MIP in the 100% LTV calculation would likely require higher down payments from higher risk borrowers. For example, if FHA implemented a 3% upfront premium for a category of borrowers, the maximum LTV would effectively become 97% (100% -3% upfront premiums.
While some would like a lower down payment/cash investment requirement, this provision is probably the best we could hope for in light of current market conditions.
c. No mention of risk-based pricing
We understand there will be no mention of risk-based pricing in the bill. However it will permit a maximum upfront premium of 3% instead of 2.25% as well as an increase in the annual premium.
What is next and when the bill be enacted?
The compromise indicates that a bill is likely. In fact, we would now be shocked if an FHA bill is not passed this year. We would expect the process to be completed and signed by the President in the next 30 days barring some unforeseen circumstance.
That being said, there are several steps to go. First, the House will vote on the legislation on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the Senate Banking Committee will mark-up its bill (highlights above) and then its bill will be sent to the full Senate for action. That should be completed quickly assuming there are no problems at the mark-up.
Probably the most critical step remaining will occur when the FHA bill goes to a conference of House and Senate Committee leaders to reconcile differences in the two bills. Because of the nature of Senate rules (i.e. minority has considerable power), we would expect most controversial provisions to be resolved along the lines of the Senate bill although changes are possible. For example, there will be a House amendment to raise the FHA mortgage limits significantly in high cost areas (as high as $700,000). While it may pass in the House, its odds of inclusion in the final bill are much more questionable at this time. However, market events over the next several weeks could also have a significant impact on this provision and possibly others.
We will, of course, follow this process through the remaining steps that hopefully will end at a bill signing ceremony by the President. While there are still some issues to be resolved, we do believe that it is appropriate to start planning for implementation of major changes to the FHA program including higher mortgage limits and changes to the down payment calculation. By the end of this week, we should have more certainty as to the likely provisions.
2) RISK-BASED PRICING
HUD has indicated that they will be proposing a risk-based price premium structure in a notice early next week. HUD will be soliciting comments before making a final decision. They had wanted to implement this proposal in January 2008. However, based on feedback they are receiving about the time needed to implement such a change, we are hopeful that HUD will delay implementation for at least several more months.
No comments:
Post a Comment