Boulder, Colorado insight on real estate, life, culture, experiences, Boulder County regulations, moms and kid-friendly activities.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Outdoor Furniture Fixes
Good wood. Wood furniture should be kept under waterproof covers when not in use. To keep it in good shape, start off the season with a sealant such as teak oil for hardwood. If possible, don’t stand wood legs directly on grass because the moisture from the ground can rot untreated wood. For ongoing maintenance, wipe down tables and chairs every two weeks or so with a cloth that’s been wrung out from a solution of soapy wood cleaner.
Plastic fantastic. For resin furniture, guard against fading and brittleness from excessive heat and abrasive cleaners by washing with a mild all-purpose cleaner. When white plastic ages, it can yellow. If your furniture gets to this stage, you can use a mildly abrasive cleaner, which helps prevent black grime from getting embedded in the rough edges of the plastic. Soaking such a stain in a strong bleach solution — 2 1/2 tablespoons bleach to one gallon of water — also helps whiten it, but you may not get uniform results. If you can, position the chair so the bleach solution covers an even area. Rinse the solution off after 30 minutes.
Heavy metal. Metal furniture generally has a protective finish, so all you need to do is wash it with a cloth dipped in soapy water. However, if the coating has started to wear away, you can paint it again with a clear metal varnish. Most cast- or wrought-iron outdoor furniture will already have a clear varnish, but it can wear over time. To repair it, sand the damaged areas carefully before reapplying paint or varnish. Then, throughout the season, wipe down with a soapy cloth and dry very thoroughly.
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Chill Out
· Open windows and use portable or ceiling fans instead of operating your air conditioner. Even mild air movement can make you feel three or four degrees cooler.
· Without blocking air flow, shade your outside compressor. Change air filters monthly during the summer.Use a programmable thermostat with your air conditioner to adjust the setting at night or when no one is home.
· Don’t place lamps or TVs near your air conditioning thermostat. The heat from these appliances will cause the air conditioner to run longer.
· Install white window shades, drapes or blinds to reflect heat away from the house. Close curtains on south- and west-facing windows during the day.
· Caulking and weather stripping will keep cool air in during the summer.
· Turn off your computer and monitor when not in use.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
The Nose Knows
You bet!
A poll by Canadian real estate company Royal LePage shows that the odor of a home has a huge impact on buyers’ decisions about whether to buy a home. According to the poll, 53 percent of buyers said strong odors such as pet and cigarette smells had a stronger impact on their impression of a home than overall tidiness and cleanliness, strong wall colors or an outdated facade and landscaping.
Here are some tips for making sure your home has good scents:
· Don’t mask smells with candles or potpourri. Buyers will wonder what odor you are trying to hide.
· Keep the exotic spices and fish to a minimum when cooking the night before a showing. Work toward achieving a “clean” smell.
· Remove animals and litter boxes from the property.
Getting rid of repellent scents is the first step, but some staging experts also advise using “homey” smells to entice buyers. After all, who doesn’t love the aroma of freshly baked cookies or pie?
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
Is Your Home Baby Ready?
Suffocation is the most common type of accident in the home for children under four years old and the most common cause of accidental death in children under one. To prevent these accidents, make sure that all pull cords are secured and out of reach of children. Also remember to put all small objects – coins, rings, batteries, etc. – out of children’s reach. And in your child’s bedroom, crib bars should be no more than two-and-three-eighths-inches apart. The Consumer Product Safety Commission has a list of approved cribs on its Web site, www.cpsc.gov.
Another hazard in your home is hot water, which can burn or scald young skin. An easy fix is to set your hot water thermostat to no more than 120 degrees. If you are unable to control your water heater, anti-scald devices for faucets and shower heads can help regulate water temperature. To prevent electrocution, cover all outlets with outlets covers, which can be purchased at any hardware store. Be sure that they cannot be removed easily and are not small enough to be a choking hazard.
To find information on other child safety products and related information, visit www.cpsc.gov and www.nsc.org/library/facts/babyprf.htm.
Thursday, June 28, 2007
GET SOME SPACE!
Odette Lueck, of Odette Lueck Interiors in Oakland, Md., says the best way to stretch the size of a room is to start from the ground up. “The thing I use most is diagonal lines on the floor,” says Lueck, who suggests installing wood flooring or tiles in a diagonal line. “No matter which way you look, it’s expanding the border.”
If you’re not ready for a major project, you’d be amazed at what you can accomplish with just a few decorating tricks. First and foremost is color. To make your room appear larger, stick with neutrals and keep backgrounds (wall, furniture, draperies) the same color, says Lueck. But neutral doesn’t have to be boring. “Use your color in accessories,” says Lueck. But beware of patterns. Too many patterns can make a space seem cluttered.
Furniture placement is also important. The number of pieces should be kept to minimum and positioned against a wall. “Use glass coffee tables,” suggests Lueck. “It’s one less thing to be a solid focus in the a room.” Don’t be afraid to use a little creativity. For example, a stack of coffee table books next to chair can serve as a unique end table.
Another option is to embrace the room’s petite size. “More often than not clients
make the mistake of thinking that room always has to be larger,” says Lueck. “Small is
not necessarily bad. A lot of times, what you’re actually striving for is a more
intimate space.” To warm up a small room, include dark colors, lots of wood and plenty of cozy
fabrics.
Friday, June 22, 2007
The Call Of the Outdoors
If you think outdoor living simply requires a few folding chairs and a hibachi on your
back porch, think again. According to the Hearth, Patio and Barbecue
Association (HPBA), homeowners can set up
a basic outdoor living space consisting of a durable, high-performance grill, a dining area with table and chairs, lighting, a patio umbrella and a portable heater or fireplace for as little as $2,500. For larger spaces and budgets, high-end landscaping, an in-ground swimming pool and a kitchen island with appliances create an ideal place to entertain family and friends.
To get you started on building your ideal outdoor room, here are a few tips:
* Decide how you will use the space. Will you entertain family and friends, or use it as a relaxing hideaway for yourself?
* Create a wish list of features you want your outdoor room to have. Clip photos from magazines or keep a notebook of ideas.
* Consider your home’s architectural style, so your outdoor room design complements your indoor space.
* Work with a specialty retailer who can suggest products and guide you on your final plan.
* Sketch a layout of your outdoor room with the fireplace as the focal point. Then blend in the cooking and eating areas.
* Consider the foundation, such as retaining walls, fences and decks.
* For large-scale projects, implement your plan over a two- or three-year period, beginning with electrical and plumbing. Accessorize the space during the second year, and add landscaping last.
Once your outdoor room is complete, you won’t want to spend time anywhere else.
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
COLO. 7 UPGRADES AND REROUTING UNDER REVIEW
Source: BARA/In Region
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Local Real Estate 1st Quarter Report
1st Quarter 2007
Housing market stats for the 1st quarter of 2007 have been tabulated and show some pros and cons over the 4th quarter of 2006 as follows:
Q4 ’06 Q1 ’07 Q2 Forecast
Average Price $456,100 $469,000 ↑
# Homes on the Market 1,821 2,180 ↓
# Homes Sold 782 659 ↑
# New Homes Built 51 47 ↑
Avg # of Days on Market 107 124 ↓
In the Boulder area marketplace, we are continuing to see homes being sold at a higher than average pace and price range than that of the rest of the nation. The market is correcting itself however with some price moderation; the percentage of asking price vs. sold price remains at a respectable mid 90’s percentage range in Boulder County. Combined with historically low mortgage rates, home sales should continue at a steady pace – people still need homes!
The region added 5,900 jobs in the past 12 months. More jobs could also be added based on the weakness in the dollar, which helps the U.S. exporting companies. The forecast, as reported by Lawrence Yun, NAR Senior Research Forecaster: “Best guess is for home sales to show a year-over-year growth by the 4th quarter. The momentum will strengthen in 2008. Prices will also show a respectable rise in 2008. The market just needs to pass through the subprime loan implosion in 2007.”
Source: Information and Real Estate Services, LLC
Friday, May 18, 2007
REAL ESTATE - A LOCAL MARKET
- The average price of homes in UP!
- Mortgage rates remain low!
According to NAR, the forecast for the second quarter indicates that the average price per home will continue to rise; the number of homes on the market will decline; the number of homes sold will rise; the number of new homes built will rise; and, the average days on the market will decline.
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Integrity!
I wouldn't say that I'm anything like George Bailey, but I will say that in the business of real estate, integrity is my greatest asset, one that I protect with every decision, increase with every satisfied customer, and ensure with every positive action.
You deserve the absolute highest level of integrity in every transaction. And that's my pledge to you, and your friends or others that you might refer to me.
If there is any way that I can help you or an associate, please call at your convenience.
Friday, April 27, 2007
Spring Spruce-Up Tips
On a Shoestring
LowesRealtorBenefits.com
Source - Reprinted with permission for our customers: © 2007 by Lowe’s®.
1. Spring into cleaning – Use a little elbow grease to
make your floors, windows, appliances and light
fixtures sparkle. Potential buyers feel more comfortable
when viewing a clean house.
2. Minimize clutter – “Less is more” when it comes
to staging your home for sale. Put anything in storage
that takes away from a room’s overall impact.
3. Organize closets – A well-organized closet will appear
roomier, which is what buyers want. There are
a number of affordable closet shelving and storage
systems that you can install yourself.
4. Paint works wonders – Fresh paint can be the
least expensive way to transform a room. Neutral
colors work best because a buyer can move in
now and choose their custom colors later.
5. Make a great first impression – Pretend that
you’re entering your home for the first time. If there
are cobwebs or peeling paint on your front door,
that first impression will be negative. Make needed
repairs and replace an overly-worn welcome mat
with a new one.
6. Add color with containers – Add container plantings
to your front entrance for a welcoming focal
point. The following plants are perfect for spring:
ivy, sweet alyssum, geranium, snapdragon, salvia,
liriope, and dianthus.
7. Fresh cut flowers – Fresh flowers bring the outdoors
inside, adding color and aroma. If your home
is painted in neutral tones, choose brightly colored
flowers. If your home is already full of color, opt for
lighter hues, such as white or yellow.
8. Spring touches – Lighten up your decorating
with throws and toss pillows that say “Spring”.
Pack away those heavier quilts and winter accent
pieces.
9. Hot color trends – This Spring, soothing mint and
bright foliage are two striking variations of this
season’s signature color: green. Other tones also
incorporate a hint of green, including light, airy
blues and deeper gray teals. Honey-hued yellows
and subtle shaded purples, along with bright white
round out the season’s palette.
Friday, March 30, 2007
Tax Time!
Last-minute changes may affect your 2006 income taxes.
Before you file your 2006 income taxes, double-check that you and your tax preparer have digested the last-minute changes made with the Tax Relief and Health Care Act of 2006, passed December 20, 2006.
The good news: You may qualify for some of these deductions.
The bad news: The tax law changes were passed after the IRS's November print deadline for key 2006 forms, which means that some of the printed forms you have in hand could be inaccurate. Yes, those tax forms that are already difficult for most of us to decipher have the added level of difficulty with possible inaccuracies.
The IRS knew that special extenders could be passed by Congress, so some of their forms indicate that there was legislation pending. Still, the IRS decided not to reprint all of the 2006 tax forms that are affected. Instead, they are relying on you to find out about the changes to correctly fill out the paper forms or download the correct forms from their website.
Before you say that you've missed the boat on any possible way to take advantage of the changes because you have already filed your returns for 2006, stop that thought. Ask your tax preparer to help you make the correction on Form 1040X if you filed as an individual or Form 1120X if you filed as a corporation. In most cases, you have up to three years to file the correction.
Many of the changes include extensions to previously discontinued programs. Listed below are the changes that are most likely to affect you.
Health savings accounts (HSAs) function a lot like IRAs, except they are earmarked for healthcare expenses. If you have an HSA, you can claim a tax deduction for contributions that you — not your employer — make to your tax-deductible HSA in 2006. Planning for the rest of 2007, you can make pre-tax contributions equal to your annual deductible, up to $2,700. (These contributions aren't included in your gross income.) If you want to transfer funds into your HSA from your IRA, you can make a one-time transfer of $2,850. You can also make a one-time transfer from a flexible spending account or a health reimbursement account. There are restrictions on the maximum transfer amount, so check with your accountant before making changes.
IRA contribution limits have risen for the 50+-year-olds who have Roth and traditional IRAs: from $4,500 to $5,000 for 2006. If you are under 50, the limit is still $4,000. If you are 70-1/2 or older, you can transfer up to $100,000 tax-free to an eligible charity. This contribution counts toward your minimum required distribution, which means that it's a tax-free way of moving the required funds out of your IRA. (More information can be found at IRS News Release IR-2006-192.
Welfare to Work Credit (WTWC) and Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC) concerns employers who hire economically disadvantaged employees — convicted felons, food stamp recipients under age 25, high-risk youths, etc. This credit had expired at the end of 2005 but was extended through 2007. If you have hired someone from a qualifying group, you can typically claim 40 percent of the qualified first-year wages, with a maximum of $2,400. If you've hired someone this year who may qualify you for this credit, keep in mind that WTWC and WOTC are combining into just the WOTC, which means more changes. (For more information, click here and here.
Sales tax claims have changed for states that don't have state and local income taxes. The IRS allowed those taxpayers to claim state and local sales taxes in 2004 and 2005. With the end-of-the-year extenders, those affected taxpayers can continue to claim sales tax (including any paid for houses, cars, and boats) through 2007. The sales-tax tables weren't included in the Form 1040, so you will need to visit the IRS website for Publication 600, which helps figure out the deduction that is done on line 5 of Schedule A with the notation 'ST' to the left of line 5. For more information, click here.)
Your personal taxes If you are keenly tax-aware, you know that around November each year the IRS uses its authority to make some decisions that affect income tax filing, including those that involve cost-of-living deductions. A few of the other 2006 income tax changes that you should know about include the following:
Standard deductions typically change each year, based on cost-of-living changes. For married couples filing a joint return and qualifying widows and widowers, the standard deduction went up $300 to $10,300. For singles and married people who file separately, it rose $150 to $5,150. Heads of households have a standard deduction of $7,550 — up $250.
Standard mileage rates also change almost every year. For 2006, the mileage rate for business use of a vehicle was 44.5 cents per mile. The rate for this year, 2007, is 48.5 cents per mile. Also, if you are involved in helping out with any charitable building with Katrina, the mileage rate is 32 cents per mile for 2006, which is higher than the standard 14 cents per mile for other charitable services.
Direct-deposit tax refund choices have expanded for 2007. Starting with your 2006 federal income tax refund, you can split your refund among three bank accounts. You will need to complete Form 8888. If you want funds deposited in just one account, just use the direct-deposit line on Form 1040.
Overwhelmed? Tax laws and the IRS forms can seem daunting, but it's worth taking the time to check into these end-of-the-year changes. They could affect your income tax return this year and may even affect the way you are planning to manage the rest of 2007.
If you'd like more information about the last minute tax changes, check out IRS Pub. 553 Highlights of 2006 Tax Changes.
Source: Theresa Coleman is a freelance writer and editor based in Ambler, Pa. She has an extensive background in publishing with the National Association of Home Builders, covering job-site safety among other topics.
Friday, March 23, 2007
The Advantages of Working with a REALTOR
Not everyone who sells real estate is a REALTOR®. Possessing a real estate license does not afford instant REALTOR® status; an important distinction of which you need to be aware. A REALTOR® is a member of local, state and national professional trade associations and, as such, has access to a vast array of educational programs, research and resources. A REALTOR® subscribes to a strict Code of Ethics developed by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. REALTORS® pledge to provide fair treatment for all parties involved, protect the right of individuals to own property and keep abreast of changes in real estate practice through continuing education and interaction with other professionals.
REALTORS® also are committed to higher levels of education and professional development; many REALTORS® have earned professional designations or specialty certifications requiring intensive study. For example, REALTORS® who have obtained the Accredited Buyer Representative and Certified Residential Specialist designations have been trained in all aspects of serving as buyers' and sellers' representatives in real estate transactions.
Your REALTOR® can tap into numerous resources, like immediate access to full-time real estate attorneys who can provide objective up-to-the-minute counsel. Your REALTOR® also receives up-to-date information on a wide variety of legal, financial and economic issues and has access to an association with more than 80 years of experience in real estate. And, if things don't work out, your REALTOR® can offer arbitration as a choice instead of lengthy and expensive legal proceedings.
In addition to subscribing to the REALTOR® Code of Ethics and belonging to their local, state and national REALTOR® associations, some REALTORS® have undergone additional training to serve specific markets and client groups. If, for example, you'd like to work with a REALTOR® who is familiar with international transactions or a REALTOR® who works primarily with elderly clients, you might want to find REALTORS® who are designated as Certified International Property Specialists (CIPS) or Senior Real Estate Specialists (SRES), respectively.
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Here are some easily avoidable mistakes you should know to keep your image and inbox in tip-top shape.
Failing to follow e-mail etiquette:
- Don't write when you're angry. Calm down. Have someone else edit your e-mail.- Don't use sarcasm. You may think you're clever, but the recipient will be put off.
- DON'T USE ALL UPPERCASE! That's the e-mail equivalent of yelling. Go easy on the exclamation marks, too. Overuse dulls their effectiveness.
- Use clear subject lines. That will help people decide whether to read the e-mail now or later.
- Keep it short. If your e-mail is more than two paragraphs, maybe you should use the telephone.
E-mail is almost like talking. We use it so much that we don't really think about it. But there are rules and courtesies, just as there are with talking. Giving them some additional thought could make your e-mail experience more satisfying and your recipients much happier.
Source: MSN.com
Friday, January 19, 2007
FREE SEMINAR
REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT SEMINAR
LEARN TO USE THE KNOWLEDGE OF INDUSTRY EXPERTS!
Date Sunday, January 28, 2007
Time 1:00 ~ 4:00 p.m.
Location RE/MAX of Boulder, Inc.
Call to reserve your seat today ~ Space is limited
(303) 415.3590
- Economic Outlook for Boulder & Colorado
- Investment Strategies In Today’s Market
- Foreclosure Investments ~ Pitfalls and Profits
- Panel Discussion ~ Ask The Experts!
Bring All Of Your Questions And Ask The Experts For Their Advice!
1031 Exchanges; Using Your IRA To Fund Investments; Mortgage Strategies;
Title Commitments; Estate Planning, and Tax Advantages; and,
Tenant-In-Common Investments
Ask The Experts: - Lou Barnes, Owner
Boulder West Financial Services
Attended Choate School & Brown University
Colorado Real Estate Broker since 1978
National Association of Securities Dealers Principal and Sales Licenses
Author & Publisher of Mortgage Credit News, a national weekly newsletter
Author of a finance column for the Boulder Daily Camera since 1992 - Mark Casey, Regional Director
SCI Real Estate Investments, LLC
MBA, Colgate Darden School, University of Virginia
BS, University of Missouri
20+ years of progressively challenging commercial real estate experience
At the individual investor level, he has successfully structured ownership groups
and facilitated tax-deferring 1031 Exchanges - AJ Chamberlin, Broker Associate
Residential REALTOR® since 1990
Active member of National Association of REALTORS®
Active member of Colorado Association of REALTORS®
Chairperson of State Legislative Committee, Land Use/ CAR
President, Property Owners for Sensible Road Policy
Former President, Sugar Loaf Community Inc.
Former President, Land Use Coalition
Recipiant of Colorado Realtors Political Service Award, 2005
BA, University of Colorado - John Chamberlin, Broker Associate
Residential REALTOR® since 1985
Active member of National Association of REALTORS®
Active member of Colorado Association of REALTORS®
Active member of Real Estate Buyer’s Agent Council®
Past Director of Boulder Area Realtor Association®
Past member of Arbitration Committee, BARA
Past member of Grievance Committee, BARA
Past member of MLS Committee, BARA
Past member of MAD Committee, BARA
Former Owner/Broker of ERA 1st Choice Realty, Inc.
New Home Sales Specialist/Former On-Site Builder Sale Manager - Jim Hunter, Production Manager of Northern Colorado
First National Bank
Attended University of Maryland & Towson State University
Certified Mortgage Lender (CML)
Past president of Northern Chapter of the Colorado Mortgage Lenders Association
Member Board of Directors, Northern Chapter Colorado Mortgage Lenders Association
Member of Fort Collins Sertoma, a national service club
Member of Colorado State Men’s Roundball Club - Betty Marick, CES
1031 Corporation Exchange Professionals
Certified Exchange Specialist since 1998
CES, Federation of Exchange Accommodators
She was among the first in the nation to receive her CES designation
Former escrow officer
Former title examiner - Colleen P. Weaverling, CPA
Certified Public Accountant since 1982
BS, Business Administration from Trinity University, San Antonio TX
Specializing in Individuals, Small Business, International, Personal Service
Corporations, Accounting and Taxation, Medical/Dental Practices
Member of American Institute of CPA’s
Member of Colorado Society of CPA’s
League Coordinator of Boulder Tennis Association
Founding member of Centennial Valley Tennis Association
Past treasurer of Centennial Valley Tennis Association - Karen Woolhiser, Senior Residential Mortgage Lender
First National Bank of Colorado
Top producer of residential mortgages since 1974
Preferred mortgage lender with RE/MAX of Boulder for 6 years
Major fund raiser for Boulder Community Hospital & Boulder County Hospice
“My #1 goal is to design a loan program to meet your specific needs.” - Catherine Wynne, VP
Entrust New Direction IRA, Inc.
Catherine Wynne is one of the two principals in Entrust New Direction IRA, Inc. New Direction is a self-directed IRA administrator which assists clients who want to diversify their IRA/401k plans into non-securities based assets like real estate. She has extensive background in buying and selling commercial real estate, both as an investor and an IRA administrator. The result is that Catherine is intimately familiar with what it takes to make a real estate investment — taxable or otherwise — work. She understands that assembling the investment and paying attention to the details of the transaction as well as the IRS rules is important. Working primarily in client asset acquisition she is well acquainted with the IRAs purchase of a wide variety of assets such as mortgages, notes, private placements and LLCs. Catherine has a BS in Structural Engineering from the University of Pittsburgh and spent the first part of her career in oil and gas production, later moving into nuclear power plant design with Westinghouse before moving into retirement plan administration.
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
5 Reason You Need A Realtor
A real estate transaction is complicated. In most cases, buying or selling a home requires disclosure forms, inspection reports, mortgage documents, insurance policies, deeds, and multi-page government-mandated settlement statements. A knowledgeable guide through this complexity can help you avoid delays or costly mistakes.
Selling or buying a home is time consuming. Even in a strong market, homes in our area stay on the market for an average of 77 days. And it usually takes another 35 days or so for the transaction to close after an offer is accepted.
Real estate has its own language. If you don’t know a CMA from a PUD, you can understand why it’s important to work with someone who speaks that language.
REALTORS have done it before. Most people buy and sell only a few homes in a lifetime, usually with quite a few years in between each purchase. And even if you’ve done it before, laws and regulations change. That’s why having an expert on your side is critical.
REALTORS provide objectivity. Since a home often symbolizes family, rest, and security, not just four walls and roof, homeselling or buying is often a very emotional undertaking. And for most people, a home is the biggest purchase they’ll ever make. Having a concerned, but objective, third party helps you keep focused on both the business and emotional issues most important to you.
REALTORS are members of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS, a trade organization of more than 1 million members nationwide. REALTORS subscribe to a stringent code of ethics that helps guarantee the highest level of service and integrity.
Thursday, November 16, 2006
Freddie Mac Announcement
Nov 15, 2006
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The worst of the nation's housing slump is over, and the market should show signs of a pickup around mid-2007, a senior economist at Freddie Mac (FRE) said Wednesday.
"I think the worst is behind us in terms of the downturn in the housing market," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist, at a luncheon in Washington, D.C.
While Nothaft felt the market may not have reached its "trough" yet, he said it was unlikely that housing starts would plummet as dramatically as they did from the third quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2006, when they fell by 18%.
"Housing starts will trend a bit lower, and we have them bottoming out at some point in the first half of 2007," Nothaft said. "I think by the midpoint of 2007 we're going to consistently see some positive signs," he added.
Those predictions for the housing market coincide with Nothaft's expectations for below-trend overall economic growth in the first half of 2007, followed by an uptick in the second half of next year, with overall gross domestic product growth coming in at 3.2% for 2007.
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Real Estate Real Talk!
Thursday, October 19, 2006
MEDIA HYPE
By Kenneth R. Harney, Realty Times Columnist: Is it a housing bust or a media-driven panic? Mike Moran, chief economist for Wall Street's Daiwa Securities America, says he's surprised that virtually nobody has challenged the constant drumbeat of negative headlines and TV news warnings of imminent crashes and home price meltdowns.
"It's really been way out of line with reality," says Moran, whose firm specializes in the bond market. When a 1.7 percent decline in the median home price nationwide sparks headlines about the "housing bust," that is "just pure sensationalism about what is going on here," he said in an interview.
The housing market "is going through a correction that's badly needed" after five years of record sales and price appreciation. "The key issue is whether it is orderly or disorderly" - and it's clearly the former. Yet the financial press and TV news programs are "portraying it as a catastrophe."
Moran got indirect support for that view from other economists, including the Mortgage Bankers Association of America's chief economist, Doug Duncan, who said "the rhetoric is just way overwrought" - the sky is not falling in the real estate and mortgage sectors.
To the contrary, even the Federal Reserve's vice chairman believes the current correction will not be dramatic or even that long-lived, and that the housing slowdown will not have dire side effects on other parts of the economy.
In a speech that went virtually unreported by major media, vice chairman Donald L. Kohn told New York analysts that the "rebalancing" of prices to better fit current demand that is under way in many metropolitan markets is a normal, cyclical event - not an incipient disaster. In fact, it may even be a healthy and necessary part of the cycle: "The reported declines in new home prices in a number of areas should help facilitate the rebalancing of supply and demand" - i.e., lower prices should help gradually expand the number of serious buyers looking for houses.
Thanks to strong underlying demographic factors - new household formations and population growth - the current down phase may be relatively short-lived, Kohn suggested. New housing "starts may be closer to their (low point) than to their peak." If one takes mid-summer 2005 as the peak of the multi-year housing boom, Kohn appeared to suggest that the low point of the cycle - and the beginning of the eventual turnaround - could be just over the horizon.
The latest pending home sale index from the National Association of Realtors, which showed a surprising 4.3 percent jump in the number of sales in the contract stage, but not yet closed, supports that conclusion.
Kohn also noted that other economic conditions today do not point to a deep housing price recession or bust. For example, long-term mortgage interest rates are about a point above their historic lows, the Fed itself has stopped raising short-term rates, gas prices are falling, and the unemployment rate just dropped to 4.6 percent.
The current "situation stands in sharp contrast to some past downturns in the housing market" - in the early 1980s especially - "that followed actions by the Federal Reserve to tighten credit conditions significantly."
"Continuing growth in real incomes should underpin the demand for housing," said Kohn, "and as home prices stop rising, help to erode affordability constraints."
How come you're reading about the Fed vice chairman's moderately upbeat speech here rather than watching it on the evening news or reading about it in your newspaper?
Good question.
Friday, October 13, 2006
SUPPLY & DEMAND
Did you know that this year ranks among one of the highest in home sales? Well, probably not, the news media isn't talking about that.....
There are times when the economy is brisk and everyone feels confident about the future. As a result, people spend money. They eat out more, buy new cars, and they buy houses!
In a slowing market where the supply of available houses is greater than the supply of buyers, appreciation may slow and prices may even fall. If you are lucky enough to purchase a home during a slow period, you will probably have lower interest rates available for financing, you can be reasonably certain the economy will begin to show strength again and along with it higher appreciation rates.
Well, we are in that SUPPLY & DEMAND timeframe, interest rates are low AND NOW IS A GREAT TIME TO INVEST IN A HOME PURCHASE!
Since 1983, we have had two failrly long expanses of hot real estate markets with only a slight recession in between each. You would not want ot wait nine years to buy a home, would you? You could miss out on a substational amount of appreciation by waiting, and end up paying much higher prices.
BUY NOW - THERE IS A FABULOUS SUPPLY - LOW INTEREST RATES - LOW PRICES!